Finance Reframed

Clear Thinking

Survivorship bias

Also known as: Survivorship bias

“Everyone I know who did this ended up fine.”

What's happening

You mostly hear from the people who succeeded — the ones who tried the same thing and lost usually go quiet, so the visible sample skews toward success in a way that makes the real odds look much better than they are.

A financial example

A friend group's crypto success stories are the ones still around to tell them — the people who lost most of what they put in usually aren't posting updates. Judging the odds by who's still talking overstates how often it actually works out.

A better question

How many people tried this and quietly stopped — and would I even hear about it if they did?